Is Iran running out of missiles?
As intensified Israeli aggression continues, this pressing question has emerged among global analysts. Due to decades of sanctions, Iran’s missile reserves remain limited. Now, evidence shows Iran’s missile strikes on Israel have notably decreased.
The United States-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that the number of Iranian missile attacks dropped after Israel began a sustained air campaign on 12 June. Israeli forces have reportedly damaged or destroyed nearly one-third of Iran’s missile systems and launchers, weakening Tehran’s retaliatory capacity.
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According to Fortune magazine, despite intensified Israeli airstrikes and even threats against Iran’s leadership, Tehran has not responded with the magnitude many expected. The report notes that Israel successfully targeted Iran’s missile depots and launch points, limiting Iran’s ability to strike back on a large scale.
ISW’s analysis revealed that Iran fired an average of 33 missiles per round in the initial attacks. However, recent rounds saw that average fall to just 20. This decline highlights a serious impact on Iran’s missile-launch capability.
The think tank emphasized that Iran has fired far fewer missiles than it had originally planned—not by choice, but because Israeli attacks disrupted a major portion of Iran’s missile infrastructure.
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Before the latest confrontation, American and Israeli estimates suggested Iran held nearly 2,000 missiles, though only 750 to 1,000 had the range to strike Israeli territory. Out of those, Iran has already launched close to 370 missiles. If these figures hold, Iran may soon struggle to sustain further missile operations.
Nevertheless, Iran’s retaliation has caused damage and casualties, even as Israeli defense systems intercepted a majority of the incoming missiles. Still, critics argue that Israel’s escalatory moves aim to provoke a wider regional conflict under the guise of self-defense.
Military analysts point out that Iran’s direct military response options are limited. Israeli strikes have significantly eroded Iran’s strategic missile force. As a result, Iran may now consider shifting its approach.
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An Iranian parliamentarian recently stated that Tehran is seriously considering closing the Strait of Hormuz—a critical energy corridor through which 21 percent of the world’s petroleum liquids, or 21mn barrels per day, pass.
If Iran follows through, the consequences could trigger ripple effects across the global economy and energy markets.
As the conflict deepens under intensified Israeli aggression, Iran may resort to unconventional tactics beyond missile warfare, signaling a dangerous turn in an already volatile confrontation.
The story first appeared in the Independent Urdu.
